Puzzle me this…

Running Heroic Utgarde Keep (my first 80 heroic).
Highest boss level is 80 (I checked the boss kill screenshots).
I am level 80.
I have 159 spell hit rating. Screenshot shows that 159 hit rating increases my chance to hit a level 80 by 6.06%
I’m also spec’d 1/3 into Suppression.. so I have an additional 1% for my affliction spells.

My research says that I should be at 96% to hit a level 80 without any hit rating or talents. So I need to “make up” 4%.

Instead, I’m seeing that Shadow Bolt and Haunt missed ~4% of the time. Shadow Bolt 4.5% miss, Haunt 3.7% miss.

This suggests to me that those spells aren’t counting my +hit rating when figuring out if I hit. Though it -does- suggest that Haunt -is- counting my spell hit from 1/3 in Suppression.

Guess I have a bug to report.

11 thoughts on “Puzzle me this…

  1. All bosses + alot of the mobs in heroics are 72 elites, so you actually need to make up 6% , so basically, a combination of that and getting unlucky with the rng will probably bring you up to around a 4% miss. I don’t know if 66 shadow bolts in a heroic is enough of a sample size to get a true picture of the proper numbers.

  2. From what my guildies have been saying +hit is bugged like 15 different ways depending on what class you are and what +hit buffs you have and what talents you have. Just spend some time on elitest jerks or whatever your favorite theorycrafting site is to figure out how it is currently bugged for you.

  3. Heroic bosses are considered lvl 82 while raid bosses are considered lvl 83. Haven’t played a caster in a while but I think the base chance to miss a lvl 82 heroic boss is 13%.

    Simply looks like the results of random number generator + small sample size to me, only 66 shadow bolts were sampled to get that 4.5% miss/resist rate and only 27 Haunts for its 3.7%. If you were to go to the target practice dummies (both raid boss [lvl 83] and normal lvl 80) and cast both spells a bunch on them for a large sample size I’m sure you’d find the miss % for the spells will come very close to the expected values.

  4. I may be wrong but Supression should just help your affliction hit rate and shadowbolt is a destruction spell.

  5. Ok.. so -if- the boss is actually level 82.. then according to my research I’d would be at 94% hit. So I’d need to make up 6% hit.

    From just my hit rating I’m getting 6.06% hit to all my schools. 94+6.06 = 100.06. Meaning my miss rate is less than 0.

    RNG(0) is 0. So RNG doesn’t account for an almost 4% miss rate.

    Yes, Suppression only effects affliction spells. Which means that Haunt (the other spell that missed) had an additional 1% hit added to it. Which doesn’t matter.. because I was already at 0 chance to miss.. even without factoring in Suppression.

    No matter which way I look at it.. I’m going to have to agree with Drakesilver. Hit is buggered two ways to Sunday.

  6. As I wrote in the post, I took the boss level from the level shown in the screenshots made when the boss died. It showed level 80 (96% natural hit). But even it if they’re counted as level 82 (94% natural hit) it still doesn’t explain the almost 4% miss -WHICH ONLY OCCURRED ON TWO SPELLS-.

    Shadow bolts and Haunts missed almost 4% of the time. They should NEVER have missed. The other spells (Siphon Life, CoA, Corruption, Unstable Affliction, Immolate) did not miss a single time.

    Shadow bolt is a destruction spell, it missed 4.5% of the time. If I had no hit rating then I would have expected it to miss ~4% of the time. 4% is very close to 4.5%.. eeriely close.

    Haunt is an affliction spells. It missed 3.7% of the time. I’m spec’d 1/3 into Suppression, which gives an additional 1% hit to my affliction spells. If I had no hit rating then I would have expected it to miss ~3% of the time. 3% is very close to 3.7%. (though, it’s also equally close to 4%.. so the suppression might not be counting in there at all).

    If the miss had been 0.5% or less then I might have been able to discount it as RNG (even though I think the idea of -ever- missing when I have less than 0 chance to miss is silly). 4% is just too big to discount.

  7. You always have 1% chance to miss anything, right? Or did they change that?

    Also, unless you cast the spell 100 times, the miss rate isn’t going to match your miss rate. If I have a 1% chance to miss a Shadowbolt and I only cast 2, with 1 missing, my miss rate is 50% but we know that isn’t true. You just didn’t cast enough to show the true miss rate which, to my knowledge, is 1% even at hit cap.

    Fear.Wins last blog post..Weekend Checklist.

  8. They eliminated the “always miss by 1%” thing.

    I have 0% chance to miss. I cast 2 shadow bolts, 0 of them should miss.

    In this case, because the miss rate is 0, I should never miss.. regardless of the sample size.

  9. Take this scenario: You wind up and cast a shadow bolt while the mob your fighting is close to death. While your shadow bolt is in flight, the mob dies. How is this captured in the combat log? Is this considered a miss?

    I haven’t parsed this yet, so I’m just guessing here 🙂

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